Blackjack Even Money: When Luck is not a Push
You have an Ace and a queen. Then, the dealer deals his own firsts card on the table facing up: it's an Ace. The dealer puts another card on the table, facing down. The dealer turns toward you and asks, "Even money"?
Would you take it?
Blackjack even money serves as an insurance for your blackjack. It is almost alike in principle with blackjack insurance. With blackjack insurance, the player is insuring their original bet against a total loss when the dealer's face card is an Ace. With blackjack even money, the player is insuring possible blackjack win against a push or tie with the dealer.
For a natural blackjack, the payoff is 3:2 or 150% of your original bet. This is reduced to 1:1 when one takes the blackjack even money option.
If your original bet, for instance, is $20 dollars, the house pays you $30 on a blackjack. If you accept the blackjack even money offer, you receive $20 dollars from the house instead--- regardless of whether the dealer turns up with a blackjack or not.
Accepting even money, then, means the player is betting against a probable tie. With a tie, the player won't earn anything for one's blackjack. And this is what the player is trying to avoid. With even money, at least one can earn 1: 1. Not as big as 3: 2, but a small reward is better than none at all.
Is it?
To a card counter, acceptance of even money suggests a certain statistical assumption: that the likelihood of the dealer turning up with a blackjack is extremely strong. Taking blackjack even money is a good guarantee. A card counting player can skillfully analyze which situations are profitable with even money.
Taking blackjack even money, however, is strongly recommended against basic strategy players. In the long run, not taking even money will be more profitable. The consensus among experts: it is a bad bet.
Percentage-wise, your chances of pushing or having a tie with the dealer is around 30%, while your chances of winning is 70%. On a $20 win on blackjack even money, you win $200 on a hundred games with you taking even money. Whereas, you are likely to win $2100 for not taking even money at $30 win per game.
Blackjack even money acts as an insurance bet not against loss, but against a tie with the dealer; that is, when the dealer's known card is an Ace. Since the odds of a push or a tie with the dealer are a mere 30%, you will profit more if you decline it. So the next time the dealer asks you, "Even money?" do the math. Statistics would say, it is better not to.